Nigeria's Macro-Economic Analysis for the Year 2015-2023.














Data Source 1: DMO Office
Data Source 2: CBN.GOV.NG
Softwares: Microsoft Excel with slicers


Outline

1. Data Gathering

2. Exracting key points from Analysis

3. Conclusion



1. Data gathering

Data used in this project was gathered from several sources, majorly the data sources listed above.
Disclaimer: Note that there may be some discrepancies in significant digits. However, data used in this report is 95-99% correct to the nearest whole number.

2. Extracting key points from Analysis


Public Debt

Nigeria has witness an increase in public debt profile from 2015 where the debt was recorded to be N12.6Tn ,gaining an upward trend to N44.1Tn as at 2022 up to N77Tn predicted for the year 2023.

Debt to Revenue ratio

In resemblance to the debt profile, the debt to revenue ratio which shows the measure of income genrated to service existing debt. Debt to revenue began improving slightly from 2015 down to 2019, picking up an upward trend from the point of inflexion and began to rise to about 31% in 2021 and peak at 65% in 2023. Thi shows that the country has had a great difficulty in meeting its financial obligations.

Inflation rate

Inflation rate has moved from 9.01% in 2015 to 16.95% as at 2021 to 21.82% in 2023. This indicates a 142% increase in 8 years.
Since there is usually a positive relationship between inflation rate and economic growth, this surge has contributed to a decline in the rate of investment and the nation's' GDP. An increase in consumer price index have also been witness around this times as a result of an increase in the price of goods and services.

Exchange rate

The nation's currency have been seen to weaken in its value as a result of its equivalence in the international market. Exchange rate to dollar have increased from 165naira to a dollar in 2015 to averagely 640naira to a dollar despite several policies to mop up excess liquidity, reduce the demand pressure on the naira to prevent its depreciation. This effect have been responsible for the huge deficit recorded in the country's balance of trade and payment, an increase in cost of production and a reduction in Foreign Direct Investment.

GDP per capita

The GDP percapita which is a measure of the economic output per person has experienced a series of upward and downward trend across the years. A high GDP percapita is recordeed in 2023 as compared to the previous years, however, this usually does not imply a high level of household income or a good well being of the people. Hence wealth made does not translate to an increase to the size of the people's purse. Since data has shown that a large percentage is used in servicing the nation's accuring debt.'

Unemployment rate

Several factors including those highlighted as responsible for the results above has contributed to a high rate of unemployment.
Nigeria's rate of unemployment has increased averagely at the same rate since 2015 leading to a perfect linearity shown in the result above.

3. Conclusion

In general, increase in exchange rate has led to the nation's currency depreciation. When exchange ($ to N) rate appreciates, it causes the cost of production to rise in a country's economy thereby leading to inflation. Inflation inturn lead to a decrease in the rate of investment which causes a righ rate of unemployment. Real GDP is affected by this effect and a high debt to revenue ratio adds to an indicator of a struggling economy. One of the resulting consequence is the high rate of unemployment as there are no motivation to commit ones resources to investment in an unstable economy. The analysis have been able to capture the relationship between few economic variables within limits of the data available.

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